Oil prices rise on concerns over supply disruptions

29 April, 2018, 00:51 | Author: Bert Pena
  • Brent Crude

Mr Khoman told CNBC: "We think at least 250,000 to 350,000 barrels of Iranian crude a day could be at risk of disruption if sanctions are brought back into place".

New Delhi, Apr 26 Crude oil prices rose by 0.42 per cent to Rs 4,587 per barrel in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions taking positive cues from overseas markets. The country's exports are expected to fall slightly in June to 1.796 million bpd, compared with the 1.895 million bpd in May's revised export programme.

U.S. President Donald Trump will decide by May 12 whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of an agreement with six other world powers over Tehran's nuclear program.

Surging US production, which hit 10.59 million bpd last week, has encouraged record-high US exports. "Yet the possibility that the USA will not pull out of the deal reduced the risk premium for oil causing a sell off along with a sudden spooked United States stock market".

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 424 points, or 1.74 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 1.34 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 1.68 percent.

The US 10 year Treasury yield has drifted back below 3% overnight (it now sits at 2.99%). Gasoline stocks were down (-3.0m vs. -0.3m expected) while distillate stocks (-3.0m vs. -0.4m expected) were also down.

There is a price divergence in the market that could raise some concerns amongst traders.

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Caterpillar, the biggest maker of construction and mining equipment, increased its 2018 profit projection by as much as 24 percent.

Supply disruptions in Iran will have a stronger bullish influence on Brent prices, while rising USA inventories and production will have a bigger impact on WTI prices.

Caterpillar's per-share earnings for 2018 range from $10.25 to $11.25 per share.

"The market is being led down by gasoline as inventories rose due to an extraordinary high level of imports and that is weighing on crude oil prices", said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. "In the first quarter, we increased cash returns to shareholders, reduced debt, exceeded our production guidance, continued to lower our costs and announced two significant oil discoveries offshore Guyana - Ranger and Pacora".

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the USA may drastically reduce its import of crude oil from Nigeria by 2022, going by its projection of becoming a net energy exporter in four years.

By end-April, China will likely have taken in more than 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude - its most ever and almost 10 percent of global consumption.

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