Falling energy prices hold U.S. consumer inflation to 0.1% in December

13 January, 2018, 03:54 | Author: Shannon Aguilar
  • Annual retail food inflation rose 4.96% in December from 4.35% in the previous month

The retail inflation, based on the consumer price index, was 4.88 per cent in November and 3.41 per cent in December 2015.

Meanwhile, the country's industrial output grew 8.4 percent in November from a year earlier, government data showed. This was 3.58 per cent in October 2017.

The sub-category of food and beverages during the month under consideration recorded a rise of 4.85 per cent over the same period previous year.

The 0.3 per cent monthly increase in the core CPI topped the 0.2 per cent median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg.

Jaikishan J Parmar, research analyst at Angel Broking said that increase in industrial production could be partially attributed to the base effect as November 2016 was the month when production had taken a hit due to note ban.

RBI will hold its next policy review on February 7. Finally, St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, chimed in by acknowledging that the Fed's inflation target has sparked some debate in the policies undertaken at the Central Bank. "That continues to be a sticking point for some members of the Federal Open Market Committee who are reluctant to raise interest rates further in the absence of greater inflationary pressure".

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Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy and it increased at a 2.2 per cent annualized rate in the third quarter, when the economy grew 3.2 per cent.

Crude oil prices have rallied, sending Brent crude above $70 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since December 2014, a worry that India imports most of its energy needs. We believe that current rate easing cycle by the central bank is over for now.

However, the consumer price inflation is expected to come in at 3.6 percent in FY2018 and it is likely to average 5.1 percent in FY2019. "However, those on the other side who are concerned about upside risks to the inflation outlook now have a bit more ammunition thanks to the tax cuts passed in December".

The big gains in core inflation were driven by the rising cost of rental accommodation and healthcare. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the CPI to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent in November. Inflation in the food and beverages segment quickened to 4.85%, from 4.41%. That is what had led to the CPI number being lower than our expectation.

India's retail inflation in November breached the Reserve Bank of India's.

The Nikkei India manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose at the fastest rate in five years in December to 54.7 from 52.6 in the previous month.


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